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Rising Tides
Shirley King | Avenida Primavera

Graphic Art Olson. Source: National Research Council 2012.
Click on photo to enlarge.

Introduced at the May 5th Sea-Level Rise Stakeholder-Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), the Draft Coastal Hazards, Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Study was prepared by Joseph Smith, Senior Planner and staff in coordination with STAC and Environmental Science Associates (ESA). It examines the City’s vulnerability to the effects of sea-level rise and increased flooding and erosion throughout the years 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100.

As illustrated in the graph above, conservative projections indicate that the City will experience a 5-inch increase in sea-level rise by 2030, increasing to 12 inches by 2050, 1.7 feet by 2070, and 3.1 feet on 2100. In a public communication from Joseph Smith he states the effects experienced by Del Mar during the historic flood events of 1980 and 1983 are considered to have a 1% to 5% chance occurrence in any given year. The draft study projects that the chances of these extreme floods could increase to 15% by 2030 to 2050, 50% by 2070, and up to 100% by 2100, with severe flooding occurring every year.

The graph is derived from the data of projected future sea-level rise from the National Research Council study ‘Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon and Washington (NRC 2012). The mid-range sea-level rise (Mid SLR) scenario is based on reducing fossil fuel use, with a balance between fossil fuels and alternative energy sources, whereas the high-range sea-level rise(High SLR) scenario assumed intensive fossil fuel use will continue in the future. The NRC sea-level rise projections are considered “best available science” for/by California. Source: The City of Del Mar Coastal Hazards Vulnerability Assessment, April 2016 www.delmar.ca.us/DocumentCenter/View2358/

The next two STAC meetings June 9 and July 21, 4 to 6 pm will consider recommendations to the City Council as to how the City can adapt to future changes based on the Draft Study.


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